With the debate and the vote over the stimulus package complete, it’s clear that the Republicans are making a very big, and probably, a very bad bet. In fact, I’d argue they are “all in” in gambling parlance.
Setting aside philosophy for the moment, just look at the situation. If the macro-economic situation stabilizes or improves over the next 24 months, the Republicans lose because there was no support for the stimulus bill and Democrats can point at them and say “while things were falling down around our heads, the only thing THEY could do was whine about tax cuts.”
Conversely, if the situation continues to degrade over the next 24 months, the Republicans “win” their big bet and can say “See, we told you they were wasting trillions of dollars. If only they’d listened to us to create big tax cuts.” But let’s think a moment about the circumstances that would likely be true for the bet to payoff so to speak: the economy is appreciably worse than it is now, the number of options to fix it are even more limited than they are now, and in that time period it’s reasonably likely that some other event has acted as a negative catalyst to the situation that isn’t strictly related to the economy. So, what exactly do the Republicans win?
In the pantheon of bad bets, this is a doosy! Here are some other interesting long bets, some might say bad bets…
Those of you who read this blog may say “why do you care?” and to them I answer, it’s a good thing to have a viable opposition party in our Republic. Libertarians are a little too wacky for mainstream (which is unfortunate, because a very legitimate debate could and should be held over the size, scope, and influence of government.) The Green party has no legs. The Alaska Independence Party has Sarah and Todd Palin. What’s left?
One of the most ironic things we’ve witnessed throughout Obama’s short Presidency is the return of the “fiscally conservative” Republican. That is a real laugh as the Republican Executive and Legislative Branches, over 6 of the past 8 years, has overseen a doubling of the US Debt. That’s not a reasonable position to try to sell. What have they got left? A socially conservative agenda which, based upon demographics, is a losing battle as the support for the party trends elderly and fewer younger people subscribe to those philosophies as dogmatically as their elders.
Is the Republican brand dead? If it’s not now, regardless of what happens over the next two years in the macro-scene, it’s on the proverbial death bed. So, what can we do to replace it with a legitimate opposition party?
