‘Twas the night before the championship game, and all through the land, no one cared except in bayou land…(and perhaps central Ohio.)
Rant Just so we’re clear, I’m a Buckeye fan and OSU is in the championship game, but the time for playoffs has arrived in DI football. I just state this now so it can be taken at face value rather than some fan whining win their team (USC, Georgia, Oklahoma, etc) has been passed up to participate. University Presidents, pull your thumbs out and get busy. I know you don’t want to do it, but psst, here’s a secret, you’ll make more money with a playoff! And, that after all, is why you want to preserve the existing system…Rant complete
Now, to the game, where the LSU Tigers will take on the Ohio State Buckeyes Monday, January 7th at 5pm PDT broadcast on the Fox Network. Much ink has been spilled on this event where the winner will be crowned Division I National Champion for Football. The talking heads will have you believe that LSU is so far superior to this or any Buckeye team that they need only show up to claim their crystal trophy. When looking at matchups, I tend to see where the money is flowing to gauge sentiment; people risking cash tend to know a little more than casual fans and talking heads paid to generate controversy. The Vegas odds opened at OSU +6, meaning the Buckeyes were installed as 6 point underdogs. Today, on the eve of the game, the published odds are OSU +4.5 meaning that more people gambling believe we’re in for a close game.
Much has been made of the “SEC speed” advantage running up to this game. Having suffered through the Debacle in the Desert last year, I can tell you there was a speed mismatch and it happened on line play. Why it happened, I can’t say definitively, but I think it might have had to do with two contributing factors, over-confidence and over-eating. This year, all the published reports coming out from both squads lead me to believe the trip is seen as a business trip and that actual work is happening with the expectation of a large challenge in the game. We shall see. Enumerated below are the key matchups and items that need to be considered in the preview of this game followed by a prediction.
LSU Offense vs. OSU Defense
Just the facts:
LSU Offense Unit Rankings #12 overall (39 ppg), #11 rushing (219 ypg), and #54 passing (229 ypg).
OSU Defensive Unit Rankings #1 overall (11 ppg), #3 rushing (77 ypg), and #1 passing (148 ypg).
The LSU offense is a load, they’ve produced 30 points in every game this season except two against Tennessee (14) and South Carolina (28) – what do these two defenses have in common? Not much, Tennessee is the #73 overall defense and South Carolina is the #57 overall defense. But the thing they did was to take away one aspect of LSU’s offense, make them one dimensional. That’s tough, as you can see from the season stats, they’re pretty darned balanced and successful on the average. In short, they’re good at what they do. And despite all the talk about speed, when I watch LSU, I see power. This is a powerful offensive team and when their game plan is working and the team is executing, look out!
On the flip side, the OSU defense has been a brick wall. The stats are skewed by points given up by the offense and special teams, the actual defense is giving up a little over a touchdown per game on average, with a maximum surrendered of 28 points in the loss to Illinois. The Buckeye defensive strategy is clear, take away the run to force the opponent into obvious passing situations, pin back their ears, and beat up the quarterback. This strategy didn’t work so well against Illinois (due to uncalled multiple holding calls largely and picks and the game of his life from QB Juice Williams.) Interestingly, all 28 points came through the air although 260 yards were produced on the ground that day. But look at the numbers for the season, they don’t lie, that game was an anomaly. Getting to 20 against this defense is quite an achievement.
The key to this matchup is line play. If the OSU defensive line can stop the run and pressure the QB with 7 in the box, the LSU offense will be in deep trouble. If the LSU line asserts itself and forces the Buckeyes to bring a safety up to stop the run, they’re prone to be burned over the top by LSU QB Matt Flynn, an experienced signal caller well capable of throwing and completing the long ball. Conditioning will play an interesting part in this drama, which team ate less dessert and ran more gassers? I don’t know, but I bet we’ll know the answer by late 3rd quarter of the game.
OSU Offense vs. LSU Defense
Just the facts:
OSU Offense Unit Rankings #36 overall (32 ppg), #22 rushing (201 ypg), and #88 passing (196 ypg).
LSU Defensive Unit Rankings #21 overall (20 ppg), #13 rushing (103 ypg), and #10 passing (181 ypg).
After a slow start, the OSU offense came on strong seeming to replace the top running back, Heisman winning quarterback, and top two receivers without missing a beat. The team progressively performed better as the season wore on right up to the Illinois game when things seemed to regress and the O put up only 21, Todd Boeckman got happy feet in the pocket, and tossed 3 interceptions in a losing effort to Illinois. The following week, traveling to Michigan playing in a miserable freezing rain, the passing game did not improve, though the running game produced in a big way behind Chris “Beanie” Wells and stellar play by the offensive line and blocking backs. Like LSU, this is a balanced offense as close to 50/50 run/pass as you’ll see. The achilles heel is different though for the Bucks offense, it revolves around the psyche of QB Boeckman. If we see the kind of performance he’s capable of (at Penn State for instance) then the Bucks will be nearly impossible to stop. If we see happy feet Illinois game Boeckman, it’ll be a long night for them.
The LSU defense is a strong and cohesive unit that produces in each and every game. Like OSU, the stats are skewed a bit, but by overtime games where the point totals really started to pile up while defending a short field repeatedly. Everyone talks about future NFL star and DT Glen Dorsey, and rightfully so, but the impressive aspect to me about this defense is hardnosed play and never giving up. You’d think they blitz all the time, but in reality, they’ve simply got an overpowering front 7 who can stop the run and apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks without safety help. Despite the obvious talent of this unit, they have been burned, in the air by Kentucky and on the ground by Arkansas, both losses. Darren McFadden nearly won a Heisman trophy with the rip job he put on this unit, right up the gut. But the overall season shows that these games are exceptions, not the norm. It’s a very talented, very good defense.
There are two keys to this match up, Boeckman’s confidence and LSU’s run defense. If LSU consistently pressures and hits Boeckman, better than even odds we’ll start to see Illinois Boeckman. If LSU can stop the run concurrently and force Boeckman to beat them, it’s going to be a bad day for the Bucks. Conversely, if Beanie Wells is breaking 4, 5, and 6 yard runs consistently throughout the night, by the 4th quarter you’ll see play action working and OSU will put up some points. LSU is great at generating turnovers, so Boeckman had best be smart with the ball.
Special Teams Play
Just the facts:
LSU field goals 25/32 on the year. 35.5 net yards per punt. #88 in team kickoffs.
OSU field goals 17/21 on the year. 36.5 net yards per punt. #117 in team kickoffs.
LSU has solid special teams play as seen by the statistics produced over the season. The place kicking by Colt David has been consistently great both on kickoffs and field goals. The return unit has some talented and fast players that have produced, though due to defensive play, hasn’t had many opportunities. The punting game is solid and excels at fakes and converting those fake punts into 1st downs sustaining drives. It’s not likely that special teams play will be a negative for LSU in this game unless it’s the result of a poor coaching decision.
OSU is known for exceptional special teams play, the head coach terms the punt as the most important play in the game. Like LSU, place kicking has been a strength and duties are split between Ryan Pretorious for field goals and Aaron Pettrey for kickoffs. The return unit has produced over the course of the year, but has gotten on average, 2 attempts per game due to defensive unit performance. The punting has been very consistent and good throughout the season. The only weakness I’ve seen in special teams this year is kickoff return coverage which has been a little inconsistent this year. As with LSU, it’s unlikely special teams play will be a negative for OSU in this game.
Coaching: The Hat vs. The Vest
Just the facts:
LSU’s Les Miles: At LSU in 3 seasons, 33-6. Overall in 7 seasons, 61-27. 0-1 against Tressel (while at Oklahoma State.) Trademark, always wears a baseball cap.
OSU’s Jim Tressel: At OSU in 7 seasons, 73-15. Overall in 22 seasons, 208-72-2. 1-0 against Miles. Trademark, always wears a sweater vest.
LSU coach Les Miles is a character. Setting aside the Michigan distraction, this guy has had one hell of a season. He’s coached in some real squeakers and is either two plays from being 13-0 or three plays from being 8-5 depending on your point of view. If there’s one way to describe Miles approach this season it would be unpredictable. This has been at turns good and bad. In the Auburn game in OT with time running out, he calls a pass play that if broken up causes LSU to lose the game. Auburn doesn’t expect it and it works. Against Florida, repeated conversion attempts on fourth down are successful, he’s definitely confident in his team and is willing to take risks that seem, sometimes, from the outside to be wild risks.
OSU coach Jim Tressel is vanilla. He’s calm, cool, and collected. He isn’t particularly quotable, he doesn’t flirt with other coaching jobs (that we know of,) and he is maddeningly consistent. The outcome? He just wins games. Part of the shock about last year’s performance against Florida is that neither the team nor the coach reflected what Buckeye fans have come to expect in his seven seasons, cold-blooded killers on the gridiron. That being said, Tressel establishes that baseline and then makes calculated decisions to go against established tendency and these usually work during the game. He’s not flashy, he’s not visibly emotional, but he is effective.
I would observe that both teams reflect their head coaches flavor and persona.
Everything Else
Just the facts:
The game is being played in Louisiana (at the Superbowl about 80 miles away from LSU’s Baton Rouge home) – essentially a home game for LSU.
Distractions galore exist in the Big Easy, it would be very easy for young men to be distracted in that locale.
This is Ohio State’s fifth BCS bowl, and third BCS Championship game appearance in seven years.
This is LSU’s fourth BCS bowl, and second BCS Championship game appearance in seven years.
Remember these are 18-23 year old young men who will be playing in this game. Remember what you were like when you were that age? None of us likely had microphones being shoved in our faces asking about an opponent on the eve of a nationally televised game. Heck, I know if I had a week long all expenses paid trip to New Orleans at that age it would have been trouble! The distractions are pretty evenly matched, I think the fact that this is a home game for LSU will make a difference in the game, particularly early. But I also think that it will provide a distraction as friends and families of the LSU players vie to gain access to the game and participate with the team. I’d love to see this game played in Ohio Stadium right now…Oh well.
The Prediction
These teams are pretty evenly matched. LSU has a better offense and OSU has a better defense. Those two strengths will compete against each other which means that the LSU defense vs the OSU offense will be the interesting area to watch. As always, the team that dominates the line of scrimmage consistently throughout the contest will ultimately win. I don’t think this will be a blowout, but I do think it will be a decisive win. I think that OSU wins the battle at the line of scrimmage more often than LSU and pulls out a 31-22 win in the end. As always, we’ll revisit this post game to see just how wrong I was.
