It’s Wednesday again, that must mean it’s time for the weekly game preview, this time between the Michigan State Spartans and the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium, 12:30 PT on Saturday, October 20th. As usual, Bucknuts has a good game data article available for this game.
The Spartans and Buckeyes have a long history of competitive play with MSU ruining OSU’s chances to play for the national championship in 1998, attempting to derail their hopes in 2006, and coming for the rubber game this weekend. What’s different? The attitude and the coaching staff. Former Ohio State defensive coordinator Mark Dantonio is now the head coach at MSU (notice what’s happening with his former University of Cincinnati team? It’s not an accident.) If this game were played two years from now, I would be really, really worried. But the reality is, these players are still learning Dantonio’s system and still seem to be affected by incomprehensible lapses in concentration and focus that defined the John L. Smith era.
Michigan State is a powerful offensive team, the average 37 points, 243 yards rushing and 224 yards passing per game. They have a big, strong offensive line and skilled ball handlers in RBs Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick. QB Brian Hoyer is efficient and the receivers and tightends are above average. After a tough loss to Wisconsin, 37-34 and a heart-breaking hangover loss to Northwestern in overtime, 48-41, the Spartans bounced back with a strong performance on the road thumping Indiana 52-27 to enter this contest with a respectable 5-2 record.
As you can see from these numbers, offense isn’t the challenge with MSU, it’s the defense. Which defense will show up? The one that surrendered 48 points to Northwestern? Or the one that held Pittsburgh to 13? Despite the Jeckyl and Hyde nature of this defense, it does sport one national star in defensive end Jonal Saint-Dic who has amassed 8 sacks and 11 tackles for loss on the season. Point totals surrendered thus far, 174 through 7 games, or nearly 25 points per game.
Ohio State conversely has averaged nearly 36 on offense and given up nearly 7 points per game on defense this season. If you split the difference between the teams averages you’d get a score of Ohio State 30, Michigan State 22. That’s not an unbelievable score as MSU will get some rushing yards and will score some points. The wild card here is turnovers and penalties. I have to give OSU the edge in those phases of the game. If MSU manages to win the turnover battle and OSU has stupid penalties, either stopping their own or prolonging the Spartan’s drives, it’s going to be a close game. If the turnover game is even and we see a typical Tressel-field position game, Ohio State will win comfortably.
What’s going to happen? We’re going to see a physical slugfest between two similar sized teams. But in the end, superior talent, mental toughness, and execution will create a separation in the second half leading to a 34-16 Ohio State win. As usual, we’ll check back on this after the game to see just how wrong this preview was. Enjoy the game and GO BUCKS!
Got a feeling, the Spartans just might prevail in this battle! The football can bounce some funny ways and if it bounces the Spartans way because of Hoyer Humbleness leading the way to produce a positive attitude on every play combined with down right aggessiveness and error free play, a Spartan upset could be in the making! It just could be a break out game for the Spartans in a season already filoloed with upsets! Go Spartans! Lancaster Larry
Hey Spartans, thanks for the comment. You could be right, but I sure hope you’re not. I in no way shape or form think the Bucks are unbeatable this year. But I do look at a common opponent, like Northwestern, and believe that it will be an uphill battle this year.
That being said, I believe that MSU will be a force to be reckoned with going forward in the league as Dantonio’s discipline and recruits come to bear. It’s a good time to be a Spartan’s fan as I firmly believe the program is on the upswing.
Go Bucks!
Ha Spartans dont stand a chance. My Bucks wont lose!!!!
[…] In the preview earlier this week, I predicted a comfortable 34-16 win for the Buckeyes. Obviously, I didn’t factor in the Buckeye offense chipping in 14 points for the opposition and thus the prediction was wrong. Conversely, I thought that MSU would move the ball more effectively than other opponents have – until they started reaching in the bag of tricks for high risk/reward plays like multiple half-back passes, they couldn’t move at all. Even after the trickeration came out, the adjustment only seemed to take a few plays. This defense is much better than I’ve given them credit for this year. Again, prediction wrong. I said it would be tight through the first half and that OSU would pull away in the second half. Wrong, OSU was all over them in the first half and let MSU back in the game in the second half. So there you have it, the prognostication collapse. The only way I could have been more wrong is with a MSU win – thankfully, that didn’t happen. In the final analysis, it was a win. The team is getting better (aside from those 56 seconds in the third quarter) and the team advances. Go Bucks! […]
[…] In the preview earlier this week, I predicted a comfortable 34-16 win for the Buckeyes. Obviously, I didn’t factor in the Buckeye offense chipping in 14 points for the opposition and thus the prediction was wrong. Conversely, I thought that MSU would move the ball more effectively than other opponents have – until they started reaching in the bag of tricks for high risk/reward plays like multiple half-back passes, they couldn’t move at all. Even after the trickeration came out, the adjustment only seemed to take a few plays. This defense is much better than I’ve given them credit for this year. Again, prediction wrong. I said it would be tight through the first half and that OSU would pull away in the second half. Wrong, OSU was all over them in the first half and let MSU back in the game in the second half. So there you have it, the prognostication collapse. The only way I could have been more wrong is with a MSU win – thankfully, that didn’t happen. In the final analysis, it was a win. The team is getting better (aside from those 56 seconds in the third quarter) and the team advances. Go Bucks! Bookmark It Hide Sites $$(‘div.d673’).each( function(e) { e.visualEffect(‘slide_up’,{duration:0.5}) }); […]
Go Bucks!!!