The news from Europe is dire, the housing crisis of 2008 continues to echo as real estate markets bounce along the bottom, and unemployment/underemployment remains unacceptably high. This is the news you constantly hear in an attempt to get you to watch, click, read, and buy their product.

If you are actually engaged in the economy, you can see there is something different going on. I have the advantage of participating across different segments of the economy and that provides something of a distinct view point.

Here’s what I see/hear:

• The price of housing rentals is spiraling out of control. What was a $1,500/month setup is now a $2,000/month charge in less than a year. Since mortgage rates are still at historical lows and inventory is available, watch out, here comes the next housing boom. Not building, but remodeling and purchase of existing inventory of investors looking to rent and renters looking to escape to more predictable costs.
• Help Wanted Part 1: Everywhere I go I’ve been seeing Help Wanted signs. Not just a few, about 50% of the businesses I’ve visited over the past 3 months are looking to hire. Admittedly, not all of these are great jobs, but they are jobs and I haven’t seen this phenomena since the pre-bust years. At Oddyssea, we’re looking for help and having a devil of a time finding quality candidates.
• Help Wanted Part 2: Since some of my work is consulting, I get to see inside some of the large, publicly traded outfits and what they are up to. 100% of my clients are hiring and hiring big. These are great, white collar, high paying jobs with benefits and these companies are having a difficult time finding qualified candidates to fill the openings. Hiring is going offshore not for cost reasons, but instead because of skill sets and that is a bone chilling long-term proposition for the US.
• The outcome of the US Presidential Election is not really in doubt. Markets love predictability and when the incumbent wins in a near landslide in 2 months time, we could be in for a holiday stock rally…

So Mike, what does this all add up to? I think we’re about to turn the corner on the cycle and head into an upswing. The news stories you’ll hear will be about 19 year old millionaires who led the way in the upturn. You’ll hear about companies in the US resurrected from near-death experiences. You’ll hear about wily business people who just “stuck with it” during the downturn and emerged triumphantly. Everyone will rush back into real estate after a few years on the sideline.

It will be as Alan Greenspan opined “irrational exuberance.” That will last a couple of years until the next series of events cause the next downturn when the doom and gloom stories re-emerge from their hibernation.

The best way to benefit from this is to participate. Get in the arena, get bloody, and reap the rewards. (Note: when prognosticating, it’s always a good idea to say “And I could be wrong, it’s happened before. YMMV.”) 😉

Check it out: https://oddyssea.com/2012/08/30/oddyssea-video/

Is there an eligible voter with an IQ higher than room temperature who is still truly undecided about the upcoming election? Nope. Yet we still have to suffer through 70 some days of blathering from the candidates and their lackeys which is truly wasted effort, money, and time. It makes reasonable people want to stick their heads in the sand to turn off the extraneous noise.

It’s time to reform elections for President, Senator, and Congress-Critter. Once upon a time when the world was “big” – and I mean big from a time/travel/opportunity perspective – it made sense to have a drawn out process before an election so that candidates could physically travel to visit with prospective voters in their native habitat. But now things are different, you can be anywhere in the good ol’ US of A in a day’s plane flight. Voters are inundated with 24×7 chatter via media, social media, propaganda, and advertisements. The world has shrunk and because of this change, we need to revisit and amend our campaigns.

What seems sensible to me is an election day minus 30 days kickoff. Allow 30 days of campaigning etc for Presidential, Senatorial, and Congressional elections. Allow private citizens and corporations up to $100 of contribution total during an election cycle allocated to whichever candidates / races they specify. Outlaw PACs. Revoke the tax exempt status from any religious outfit / union that mixes in politics during the election period. In short, make the voting period shorter, take out the special interests, and let people do actual work without all this wasted effort.

If we were to take this proposal, we could redirect all the cash being wasted into useful things like infrastructure, education, healthcare, police, firefighters, and defense. Who wouldn’t like that few extra billions put to work instead of pissed away with candidates lying about their opponents to a public that has long ago decided how they would vote.

Why not I say? Let’s make it so.

Just in case you had any confusion about what you’re voting for in the 2012 election, I prepared this handy chart to help sort things out. Feel free to use it and share it!

Go read it over on the Oddyssea site! The First 30 Days.