Musings from the Coast

STOP – This data has been updated for the entire season in this entry. Enjoy.

For prior CSRs, check the links at the bottom of this entry. I’ll do one final update of the CSR before the bowls commence – mostly there are rivalry and conference championship games left at this point, with only Washington-Hawaii as an OOC game that matters. Here are the results as of games completed Saturday, November 24, 2007:

Chart showing relative college football BCS conference strength from on field performance data as of Nov 24, 2007.

Comments on each conference follow, in alphabetical order:

ACC – Strongest part of the resume? 22 games against BCS-level competition. Chink in the armor? Lowest overall OOC win percentage.
Big East – Strongest part of the resume? Winning record against the SEC. Chink in the armor? Sub-.500 record against BCS-level competition.
Big 10 – Strongest part of the resume? Best win rate against BCS-level competition. Chink in the armor? Good conferences don’t lose to I-AA teams.
Big 12 – Strongest part of the resume? Overall OOC win rate. Chink in the armor? Worst OOC record against BCS-level competition.
Pac 10 – Strongest part of the resume? Only 2 games against I-AA teams. Chink in the armor? Losing record against Notre Dame, 1-2 on the season.
SEC – Strongest part of the resume? 32-1 OOC record against the little guys. Chink in the armor? Break-even record against BCS-level competition.

Based on performance to date, on the field, the conference ranking should be:

Pac 10 – The gap between the top 3 conferences isn’t that large, I could make an argument for any of them to be at the top. The Pac 10 gets the nod on two positives, BCS-competition win rate and not scheduling as many I-AA teams.
Big 10 – No, you can’t be serious putting the Big 10 #2 you Ohio State homer. On balance, the Big 10 has the strongest BCS-level competition win rate and comparable records against the little guys as the SEC, thus they get the nod at #2.
SEC – This conference is great against the sisters of the weak, but when playing teams with equivalent facilities and financial power, the record speaks for itself, 7-7. If the SEC had scheduled fewer I-AA patsies or had a winning record against BCS-level competition, it would be #2 or perhaps even #1.
Big 12 – This conference is solid, but not spectacular. The BCS-level competition win rate sub .500 keeps it in the lower half of the rankings, for now.
ACC – Now for the whining, while the ACC has a lower OOC overall win rate and no patsy win rate than the Big East, it did play the largest number of games against BCS-level competition and at least managed a .500 record.
Big East – Yes, I know the ACC has a worse overall OOC win rate; win big in the bowls and move up if it bothers you that much.
Notre Dame – Charlie Weis says “for the first time in 15 years, we’ve won our last 2 games.” Whatever gets you through the night Charlie…