This morning there are reports that US drivers logged 4.3% fewer miles driven in March than the same period a year ago, that amounts to 11 billion passenger miles. With the average price of gasoline creeping toward $4 a gallon, perhaps the pain is sufficient to cause drivers to reconsider their behaviors, something education and mass transit incentives have failed to do over the past few decades. This is the largest drop in mileage since 1942.

This begs the question: When will pain at the pump start to push non-fossil fuel alternatives to the forefront and which will ultimately win?

Our bet is on electric vehicles with hybrids as a bridge. The reason is the infrastructure exists, one can imagine their parents/grandparents managing to plug-in a vehicle (imagine them managing a hydrogen or massive pressure compressed air fill up…) and biofuels are a bridge, but not an answer yet as the feedstock is expensive and in competition with food.

The outcome will be interesting to see.
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NPR recently posted an in-depth article on bottom-cycling and waste heat recovery in industrial process as a growth area. Featured in the report was the massive ArcelorMittal steel mill in East Chicago, Indiana and its approach to becoming more efficient which includes the installation of boilers above the coke ovens, which generate on the order of 100MWe, or 2,400 MWh per day.

They’ve also taken advantage of pressure differential noticing that the gas that arrives to power their plant is delivered at 30 psi, the pressure at which the gas efficiently burns is 3 psi. So the company has installed turbines inline to harvest the energy in the pressure differential to generate even more power, about 16MWe or 384MWh per day.

The waste heat and gases from the process are also being harvested (bottom cycling) from the exhausted gases yielding a further 65-70MWe. In total, this complex is recovering around 250MWe from its various energy recycling programs offsetting 1,300,000 tons of CO² emissions per year and satisfying nearly 50% of the factories energy needs.

DOE studies suggest US industries waste enough heat to harvest an estimated 200,000MWe from the processes, nearly 20% of total present US generation capacity. Clearly, this is an opportunity for improvement and recovery of existing resources and with energy prices steadily climbing, more of these programs will undoubtably be implemented.

Links:
National Public Radio Report on Energy Recycling

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This morning there is news on the wire that New Jersey utility NRG has bid over $11B in an all stock deal to acquire Calpine. This is a 6% premium over the closing price of Calpine yesterday. With 26GW of generation capacity (a little less than 1GW geothermal, the rest natural gas) Calpine is a significant generator who only emerged from bankruptcy protection 4 months ago. Should the deal be consummated, the combined utility would have nearly 50GW of generation capacity in hydro, geothermal, petrochemical, coal, and nuclear powered generation.

The Calpine board is considering the offer at present. This is the latest in a wave of consolidate of the fossil fuel generators. Let’s hope the significant geothermal operation is not lost/damaged in the shuffle.

Links:
Calpine
NRG
AP Story on Bid

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Western GeoPower scored a nice deal yesterday inking a 20 year PPA with the Northern California Power Association for around $26M/year and a purchase price of $98/MWh. We thought the $78/MWh + wheeling costs that was cut earlier this year between the City of Anaheim and Raser was lucrative. $98/MWh is great and reflects the new CPUC pricing model.

With the deal, WGP has a $500M+ revenue stream set against a ~$120M capital expenditure. With operating costs of $30/MWh, that leaves a whopping $68/MWh for debt service, other SG&A, taxes, and net income.

Links:
Western GeoPower
Raser Technologies
Northern California Power Association (NCPA)
California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)

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Soon to be available in the US, providing zero-emission transport around Cannes, France now for less than $0.01/mile. The manufacturer claims a top speed of 100kph (~60mph) and a range of a little over 100 kilometers. With 2 hours of charging time, the batteries recover up to 90% of their charge. The bike also has regenerative braking and a reverse gear to assist in parking since this is a rather heavy (due to batteries) bike.

Links:
Vectrix

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