For the first time since 1959, both Michigan and Ohio State lost the weekend before The Game. While it takes some of the national significance away (Ohio State is not playing for a spot in the MNC) the rivalry is clearly one of the best in all sports and the stakes are still very, very high with the winner taking the Big 10 Championship outright and a likely spot in the Rose Bowl. If you’re looking for a facts and figures kind of preview, we recommend Bucknuts game data as the place to get your fix. In fact, you might find more questions in this preview than answers and conclusions.
Let’s get the prediction out of the way right now, the game, scheduled for November 17th in Ann Arbor starts at 9am PT and as of today, there is no line on the game though earlier in the week, Ohio State was a 3 point favorite. I’m an Ohio State fan and I believe Ohio State will win a hotly contested game. I’ve been in the habit of giving score predictions throughout the year, but I just don’t have one this week. I simply believe the Buckeyes will prevail.
There are many delicious story lines around this game and they really lead me to a series of questions. So rather than the standard game preview, I’ll simply enumerate the questions below.
- Will Michigan quarterback Chad Henne play? If so, how long before his arm falls off and Ryan Mallet relieves him?
- Will Beanie Well’s ankle allow more than 1 quarter’s production?
- Will Lloyd Carr retire as is being widely reported on Monday? And if so, will he do so having notched a win against the Bucks?
- Will Mike Hart play, and if so, will he break the 100 yard mark on a suddenly porous Buckeye run defense?
- How many turnovers, penalties, and mental errors will we see Saturday?
- Which team will bounce back most effectively from their loss last week?
- Who really wants to play in the Rose Bowl and win the Big 10 Championship?
- If the 3-3-5 defense is being shredded by Michigan, will Defensive Coordinator Heacock make a change? And will it be in time?
- Was passing up the NFL millions worthwhile for Jake Long, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart to return to
win a national championshipand beat OSU? - Which Buckeye offensive line will show up? The one that dominated Wisconsin and Penn State or the one that crumbled against Illinois front four?
- How many QB scrambles will Todd Boeckman run? Can Michigan stop him?
- Will Michigan play no huddle?
- Are the Wolverine cornerbacks able to keep up with the Brians? Or maybe the Rays? Or maybe even the Brandons?
- How many interceptions will Boeckman throw?
- Which Michigan defense will show up? The one that surrendered App State, Oregon, and Wisconsin or the one that help the team rip off eight consecutive victories?
- How many times will Mallet a) be sacked b) fumble c) throw touchdowns on Saturday?
- Who will win the Jake Long vs Vernon Gholston battle throughout the course of the game?
- What role will the kicking and return games play in this game? Will we see a special teams breakdown for a blocked punt/field goal, a return for a touchdown, repeated “good” returns changing field position?
- Will the Big 3 (Henne, Hart, and Long) be too tight for the game, putting too much pressure on themselves to win?
- Will Manningham and/or Arrington be a factor in this game?
- How many third down conversions will be successful?
- Will the officials actually call holding in this game? Will it take a defensive linemen dragging the offensive line tractor-pull style past the referee to get it called? Blatant tackling hasn’t seemed to rise to the level of the penalty yet…
- Will the replay equipment actually work? And if so, has the vision of the replay official been recently verified?
- How many mental errors will Shawn Crable commit?
- Will the home crowd continue the lame “key play” noise making scheme, or heaven forbid, actually scream and yell making it loud?
- Will ABC be able to broadcast the game without referencing that the Big 10 is “down this year” and reaffirm bogus SEC-superiority? Question: Which conference is 9-4 against BCS out of conference competition and which is 5-5?
- How many plays will be missed because of a) poor production values b) announcer hijinks or c) outright production incompetence?
- What’s this year’s wrinkle? Last year, running Beanie every time up the middle between the tackles on 3 or 4th and 1 for the first down happened in every game that setup the beautifully called and executed play action pass to from Troy Smith to Ted Ginn for a touchdown. Tressel seems to set tendencies over the course of the season to break them in this game.
That’s the list I can think of right off the top of my head, feel free to add your own in the commentary. Should be a great game, I’m looking forward to it. Go Bucks!
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