Over the past week, we’ve looked at the matchups between offense and defense from both team’s perspectives, special teams, strategy & tactics, and the intangibles. This entry is intended to pull it all together and paint some outcomes via a Monte Carlo simulation.

Fortunately for me, since I didn’t have the time to set up the computer model this week, the good folks at WhatIf Sports Simulations did it for us! The net is this, they ran the model 1,000 times and 65% of the time the Buckeyes won with the most common score being 27-20. The Scout Network folks posted a nice article on this complete with simulated box score.

Based on my own observation in watching multiple games of both teams this year, I expect a competitive game. In “normal” years, I think Michigan wins this game 6 times out of 10 against “normal” Buckeye teams. But, this is anything but a “normal” Buckeye team, this is a great Buckeye team. It’s going to come down to focus, intensity, poise, and pride. Even with the added emotional dimension of Bo Schembechler’s passing, I believe the Buckeyes will win. Here’s how I think the game will go, end of first quarter, Michigan 7-3, end of second quarter tied 10-10, end of third quarter Ohio State 17-13, end of game, Ohio State 24-16.

No matter what the outcome, we’re going to be treated to a rare spectacle in one of the best rivalries in all of sports. The #1 team vs. the #2 team for a place in the National Championship game. Let’s support our favorite team and conduct ourselves with dignity and respect, win or lose. I can’t wait for kickoff!

OSU/Michigan Today 12:30 PDT!
Ohio State’s 2006 record: 11-0 Next up: Michigan 11/18
Tune: People Get Ready by Aretha Franklin
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