Well, the BGSU Falcons are sure to have their hands full this weekend. In what has become a transition year for their program, they have to make a trip to the Horseshoe to face the #1 team in the land. Vegas doesn’t give them much of a chance having installed the Falcons as a 35 point underdog in the contest. (It’s worth noting that Ohio State has covered the last 11 games…..)

That said, I don’t see Tressel’s style as one to run up scores, so that’s a pretty big expected point differential.

• BGSU’s Defense is giving up an average of 30 points per game
• BGSU’s Offense is putting up an average of 23.8 points per game
• OSU’s Defense is giving up an average of 9.8 points per game
• OSU’s Offense is putting up an average of 32.4 points per game
• OSU’s offense is outscoring opponent’s defensive average by 13.7 points
• OSU’s defense is holding opponent’s offense to -18.5 points of their average

It never works out this way, but for arguments sake, let’s say the teams play “average” using the trends above. We’d expect a 45-7 (43.7-5.3) type score in this game. Well, we’ll see what happens when they actually play. The weather, turnovers, mental preparations, let downs after a big game, can all play into the performance on Saturday. Not to mention new turf that neither team has ever played on (The Shoe got a face lift after the poor field conditions experienced with Penn State.)

Ohio State’s 2006 record: 5-0 Next up: Bowling Green 10/7
Tune: So Long, So Wrong by Alison Krauss
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